TPS: Trying to Make it Simple

Last week I introduced longtime friend and UTRMinors writing partner Jim Brown to Prospect Underground readers. I explained how Brown uses his own specific scoring system called 'TPS' to sift out under-the-radar pitchers toiling in the minor leagues lower levels.
 
This week, I planned to describe both TPS and my system called PAG/APPA, but you know what, I believe they each deserve equal attention. So, this week I'm giving Brown the floor. After all, when I'm finished explaining how it works, you'll see why.
   
TPS stands for "Total Performance Score", which is similar to "Game Score", a stat created by famous baseball historian/statistician Bill James. Like Game Score, TPS encompasses numerous stats and peripherals, which are squeezed through eight different equations, which creates Brown's TPS number.

Brown said he first dabbled into deeper stats after the 2009 baseball season. Working for Jason Martinez over at MLBDepthCharts (now RosterResource.com), Brown placed immense pressure on himself because he felt common stats like ERA, WHIP, wins (to name a few) just weren't enough when trying to stay ahead of your fantasy competition, and giving potential readers something more intricate to chew on.
   
"The 1st generation numbers were very simplistic and did the job," said Brown, "but I wasn’t hitting the mark in projecting my breakouts for the following season." 

Brown confessed that the original number was too isolated. This is what began Brown's quest toward today's version. ('Breakouts' are players Jim and I choose during the off-season at UTRMinors as those we feel could have a breakout performance the following year.)
 
So, Brown's new TPS platform was a springboard toward creating a more intricate formula.

"It wasn't a replacement," said Brown, "but a reinforcement of my current system."
 
Brown also did this mostly because he grew frustrated from gathering chunks of info from several different websites. Sites like MinorLeagueCentral.com, FanGraphs and BaseballReference to name a few, each contained a select, but extremely crucial peripherals Brown used to compute TPS.
 
The TPS grading system originally covered all pitchers under the same scoring umbrella, but Brown said the numbers seemed a bit skewed because it lumped both starters and relievers together.
 
"The differential in the numbers are because relief pitchers generally don't rack up the innings pitched that starters do," said Brown, "and thus causes relievers to post somewhat lower TPS scores than starters." 
 
Brown's scoring system is as follows: 

Starting Pitcher TPS Grading:

.000 to .075 - Tier A
.076 to .125 - Tier B
.126 to .175 - Tier C
.176 & higher - Tier D

Relief Pitcher TPS Grading:

.000 to .050 - Tier A
.051 to .075 - Tier B
.076 to .100 - Tier C
.101 & higher - Tier D

Once Brown reached this level of stat tracking, he was shocked at the results. The new version enabled his ability to predict future breakouts much much easier. However, he says staying humble in the continual TPS tweaking process is key.
   
"I know this is as true as Punxsutawney Phil predicting the coming of spring," said Brown, "but I'll continue working on the equation until I can build some consistency on the pitchers I select and their overall seasonal performances."
   
Brown says he wants to create a dynamic stat, not push every sabermetrician aside, as some sabermetrician's can become quite defensive in the face of ignorance.
   
"TPS has the potential to become another in the long line of deep analytics," said Brown. "The best part is it's my own, I can work with it exclusively and I've seen results."

The possibilities are endless, as Brown has applied TPS only to lower level minor league kids.
   
"I haven't even scratched the surface of what TPS could do in predicting the trends and success of current major leaguer's" Brown said, "and that's a fun and very exciting thought."
   

   

UTR: A Rewarding Transition

After kicking off Prospect Underground, I described it as place I would highlight the top minor league baseball hitters no one is talking about while helping fantasy players boost their prospect floor.
   
Well, anyone who remotely understands baseball knows there are two sides to the game: hitting and pitching.
 
While I research and promote low-level hitters at UTRMinors.com, the pitching portion belongs to my partner and long-time friend Jim Brown.
   
Brown's introduction into the world of under-the-radar prospects began as a result of my search for new ownership in a lifetime National League-only dynasty league. A league I've been a part of for 20 years.
   
The sudden loss of two owners after the 2006 season left our 12-team league down to ten. During the time in the off-season where draft preparation should be well underway, I frantically called Brown after having lost touch with him for an extended period of time. I was hoping he'd be ready and willing to step right in as a team owner.
   
To make a long story short, he accepted, drafted his team and I took him under my wing, teaching him everything I know: Roster building, not winning leagues at the draft, smart waiver pickups and most importantly, knowing your minor leaguers. Brown confessed the invitation to join the league couldn't have come at a better time.
   
"I had just retired as Fire Chief from the [Alpha] fire department. I was working all day at the university (Penn State)."Being chief, I'd come home from work, eat dinner, then head right over to the fire house to work. I'd prepare training manuals and schedule re-certifications for all the guys. We'd do training exercises. All this on top of the fire calls. It was like working two full-time jobs, and I was burned out, no pun intended."
   
When Brown retired, his wife Melissa was worried he would go through some form of withdraw. Brown went from having an enormous amount responsibility to having nothing to do aside from his day job working for Penn State University. Melissa describes him as a 'busy body' so the timing of joining the fantasy league was what she called "a blessing."
   
Going on his tenth season, Brown has not only been successful in our fantasy league, his UTR research has garnered successful results using his own brand of scoring system called "TPS."
   
Trust me, it's not the same report Bill Lumbergh addressed during the 1999 cult movie classic 'Office Space." Brown's goal using TPS is much the same as mine: sift out the top minor league players no one is talking about yet. We follow the same pattern posting in-season daily content and off-season OAS lists.

In next weeks blog installment, I'll dive deep into the inner workings of Brown's TPS method as well as my own scoring system called PAG/APAB.
   
   
   

Spring Training equals hope, UTR waiting game.

It's been nearly a week since major league baseball started Spring Training.

Before games have even begun, teams are already expressing hope for the new season while fantasy prognosticators are tossing out World Series, MVP and Cy Young award predictions. It's a fun time of the season. It's also a busy time over at UTRMinors.com, which is the original website my partner Jim and I created as an extension of the work we did for Jason Martinez at MLBDepthCharts (RosterResource.com)

You might ask, "What's the correlation between Spring Training and Marc's website?"
Well, the site is just like spring training. A fresh start. New opportunity.
Although Jim and I loved working for MLBDC, we were beginning to feel like we we had room to be more creative, and wanted to grow from fantasy junkies into writers.
   
Gone are the days where we'd look at a player and analyze only his stats. Now, we absorb the stats, and desire attaching the story behind them.

Statistics don't just appear. There's sweat, there's hours in the batting cage, hours toeing the rubber, weight room sessions, cardio work outs behind every stat. We want to help create a path of success for these kids just like I want to, or any other student or fan who'll find themselves reading this blog. We all deserve a chance. These blogs are giving us a chance.

Now, back to baseball.

With spring training underway, this gives a glimpse into how organizations may set up their minor league rosters. Usually major league teams invite their top prospects along with a few non-roster invitees into camp. This generally means organizations want to get a deeper look at what these kids can do, and observe how they conduct themselves when surrounded by major league veterans or newly signed free agents. This doesn't usually include those 'under-the-radar prospects that Jim and I consider "our kids."
   
And just because you're a highly touted prospect, doesn't mean camp always goes well. Ask Mets flamethrower Noah Syndergaard, who made a notable rookie faux pas early on in 2015 Spring Training. He turned out just fine though.
   
For my work however, I have to wait until at least the end of April, beginning of May to see how my UTR kids are shaping up. I do this through my daily work.

Here's a basic understanding of how the UTR process works.
   
I'm asked all the time what the differences are between my off-season and in-season work.
The in-season work is the bread and butter of the process.

Every day of the minor league season, I visually scan every single box score, one-by-one from Hi-A all the way down through the Dominican Summer league. My goal is to find those batting lines that meet or surpass my daily point criteria.
   
I keep a running tally of how many times a hitter repeats an appearance on the list. Here's an example from August 15, 2014. I chose this one because I highlighted a kid who at the time was severely under-the-radar, but was producing at an extremely high level. My daily stat criteria plucked him out quite often so I promoted him on my site.
   
Since then, outfielder Mallex Smith has been traded and is considered (now, by all the baseball media powerhouses) as the centerfielder of the future for the Atlanta Braves. So, the method is working.
   
The daily work ultimately helps determine our annual UTR OAS lists posted during each off-season. ('OAS' stands for "Organizational All-Star."). Here's a sample. The 2014 Pittsburgh Pirates OAS list.
   
Because of busy schedules this past fall/winter, we weren't able to do the extensive bio work we published in 2014, but readers are responding well to the 2015 UTR OAS format.
   
So, with a few days to go before Spring Training games begin, preparation has already begun for the UTR Daily. It's incredibly satisfying to continue promoting names readers otherwise may not have heard of.
   

Welcome to Prospect Underground

     Let me start by saying thank you for taking the time to read Prospect Underground. Despite my blog being brand new, the concept of the blog certainly is not. 
     Over the last few decades, fantasy sports has become a multibillion dollar a year industry with fantasy football and baseball leading the way. 
     Fantasy baseball (originally termed 'rotisserie' baseball) originated in 1979 when American writer Daniel Okrent sat with a group of friends at La "Rotisserie" Francaise restaurant in New York City and introduced the idea. What started out using fundamental statistics has branched out into the art of saber metrics. 
     If you're not familiar with the saber metrics term, click here for the official Merriam-Webster definition.  
     Saber metrics helped open the door to more in-depth player analysis. No longer are the days where hitting a home run, converting a save or drawing a walk are the standard bearers of success. On-base percentage, WHIP, BAPIP, FIP, GB:FB ratio and exit velocity are now terms that easily roll off the tongue of any front office administrator or hardcore fantasy guru. 
     I'm here to add to the complex saber metric mix, yet my goal is simple: make it easier for fantasy baseball fans to find the next wave of prospects faster. 
     The upcoming season will be my 20th in fantasy baseball, and I've been involved in countless leagues. The primary lesson I've learned over the years is winning championships doesn't make you an expert. Research does. 
     Throughout the years, I've spend thousands of hours pouring over stats, and it's all for a greater purpose. 
       Competing in a lifetime National League-only fantasy league since 1997,  I have learned that knowing the top minor league prospects in the game simply isn't enough. I had to know more. I needed to dig deeper. Much, much deeper, wondering if there could be an easier way to do so. 
     I asked myself, "How do I separate myself from the pack of sompetition if I'm sifting through the same prospects and the same statistics as everyone else?" 
     So, I decided to look beneath my leagues scoring system. Granted, I'll never be mistaken for a math whiz, but I closely examined what each of my players needed to score on a daily basis for me to outscore my opponent each week. This was my "ah ha" moment. 
     I started using my own scoring method in 2009 when I began working for Jason Martinez, owner/COO of MLBDepthCharts.com (now RosterResource.com.) 
     I began writing a weekly feature highlighting National League under-the-radar prospects (from Hi-A down to the Dominican Summer League) who were absent from the most recent top 10, 20 or 30 prospect lists. My scoring system has been successful, as several prospects I've recommended are currently in the major leagues like San Francisco first baseman Brandon Belt, Detroit outfielder J.D. Martinez, St. Louis Cardinal first baseman Matt Adams, Chicago White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton and Oakland centerfielder Billy Burns. 
     I'll never claim my system is proven. That's too concrete. 
     However, my system has helped open the flood gates to a whole new layer of prospects. 
Prospects that I feel have a chance to help fantasy baseball participants be successful in their respective leagues. 
     The best feeling in fantasy baseball is being prepared far past your casual fantasy league mates. So, let me help you take that next step.