Never Hit the Panic Button

As we approach the end of week three in the major league baseball season, it is incredibly common for fantasy participants to begin reaching for the proverbial panic button.

What panic button you may ask?

It's not a physical button per se. This button represents the emotional state of panic one finds themselves in when their fantasy teams are pooping the bed early on in the baseball season. Whether it's your whole team or particular players you thought would start out red-hot, we've all experienced it before.

  
How many times have you had what you thought was THE best draft in the history of fantasy drafts only to witness an absolute collapse in the first month? I think it's happened to all of us more often than we want to admit.

However the best advice, says multiple fantasy baseball champion Todd Brown is, "Be patient and rely on stats to help ease the pain."

Brown is one of the most regarded owners in the PFL having won back-to-back league titles in 2013 and 2014, and 1st-runner up in 2015. To put it simple, the guy knows what heck he's doing.

   

Last season was our first year as co-owners in a separate, highly competitive 20-team mixed league. Brown and I had what we felt was an incredible draft in 2015. Our team, the Lemont Mud Turtles  was "poised to make some noise" because after all, (with sarcasm) "Brown and I were PFL league veterans with over 30+ years of experience."

Well, our team finished well short of the playoffs. We healed our emotional wounds and headed into this 2016 with renewed energy. We had what we thought was an even better draft than the year before and held the feeling that we positioned ourselves to run roughshod over the league.

At press time, the Mud Turtles rank 17th out of 20 teams.

But yet, panic hasn't set in. We aren't posting all of our players on the trade block. We aren't blowing our entire waiver wire budget. Why?

"Because we have good players and we trust the cyclical nature of the game," says Brown.

"All good, but slumping, players eventually come around," said Brown.

For example, Todd and I drafted St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright. Heading into 2016, Wainwright was coming off a 2015 campaign where he missed all but three weeks of the season due to a torn left Achilles.

"It was a non-throwing-related injury, so his arm was healthy," said Brown.

Brown also added that Wainwright's injury happened so early last season that the Cardinals ace looked to be a great draft target. Someone who could help bolster a Mud Turtles pitching staff that struggled from the very start last season.

Best laid plans right? Wainwright's first three starts of 2016:  0-2, 9 walks, 7 strikeouts, an 8.27 ERA and 1.90 WHIP.

Not what you'd expect from a staff ace of a perennial playoff team in the National League. Yet, Brown refuses to panic.

"Wainwright's 3-year-averages tell me not to panic. You have to trust the numbers," Brown said.

Over his career, Wainwright averages a 16-9 win/loss record along with a 3.02 ERA and 1.17 WHIP per season.

Brown concluded that trusting a player to come around isn't as difficult as trusting yourself not to panic.

"You have to allow things to play out" Brown said. 

"There's a reason players who are sitting on the waiver wire are there and not on fantasy rosters: because rostered players are generally better. Despite our team struggling, There's no need to panic. We'll come around."

Fun at the Ballpark

When fans decide to go to a baseball game, nothing is more frustrating than long ticket lines, uncertainty over food options and slow traffic. Here are a few tips to make game day much more enjoyable.

The Season has Officially Begun

Since my last official blog post, a lot has happened. First, I hit a milestone.

This season marks my 20th season as an owner in my N.L.-Only fantasy keeper league, the Pennsylvania Furnace League. Just like having children, time sure does fly. But thankfully every year when I sit around the table with all my fellow league mates, the fun only grows, as do the sharing of memories. The good natured ribbing never stops. And as bountiful as the baseball knowledge is in that room, the personalities are even bigger and I wouldn't want it any other way. The PFL isn't a league, it's a fraternity.

Secondly, I played my first round of golf in I can't remember how long with two of my league mates (Jim, my writing partner at UTRMinors, and our newest league member Dan) and a very close friend of mine Brennan. We hit the links on what was a very volatile, wet, cold and extremely windy day. When I got home, a friend who knew I was playing asked how things went. My answer...

"There are fewer shanks in a maximum security prison. I played 18 holes. No need to elaborate any further."

Thirdly, after the draft's conclusion Saturday afternoon, I had a compelling conversation with Brennan. Despite the small level of success Jim and I have had with UTRMinors, we're always thinking ahead. What's the next phase of our work and where will new technology and techniques take us. What I've learned in Online Media Writing has me anxious to share and implement new ideas with my writing partner. Adding visual and audio aspects to our work. Exciting stuff.
 
My discussion with Brennan was not only a rehashing of an old idea, but a vision into the possibility of the heights Jim and I could possibly reach.
   
Brennan currently works for an international software corporation, so the guy knows his way around software storage, manipulation and organization. So, my inquisition and enterprising self took over and I asked, "Is there a possibility we could ever create a draft software template?" His answer?
   
"Anything is possible."

The fantasy drafting software I've used over the last several years is quite possibly the most customizable software on the market. The one thing that sets it apart, I feel, are the position vectors.
If you aren't sure what a position vector is, here is an example of last years World Series champion Kansas City Royals. Inside the software, each major league team has it's own tab.
   
Inside each team screen is an empty position vector as well as a list of current players and highly notable minor leaguers. All the user has to do is click and drag a player and drop them where they belong on the vector. It's that simple, especially for hardcore fantasy players who keep up with injuries, daily transactions and follow minor league activity. It's almost customizable to a fault.

The only drawback to the software are player updates and the player pool. I'm not so sure the administrator keeps up with current 40-man or 25-man rosters. The player database needs constant attention as well as each major league organizations top prospect lists, and beyond.

The idea Jim and I had was to create a position vector template similar to the draft software I use. We'd keep up with both major and minor league transactions as well as shuffle the vectors around as each day of the season occurs. Sure it sounds simple, but as Brennan said, anything is possible. Then once fantasy baseball drafting season comes along, each team vector is ready, all their minor leaguers are listed, all without any leftovers or holes in the process.

So, with our baseball acumen, Brennan's tech knowledge and savvy, anything IS possible. You just have to look hard, even stumble upon the right tools and take advantage of the possibilities.

PAG/APPA: An Invention of Sorts - Part II

In "An Invention of Sorts - Part I" I introduced PAG, my Points Average per Game scoring method, and explained how this creation is a measure to help find statistical equals amongst hitters in the minor leagues, not just magnify the industries top prospects.

This week my focus is the extension of PAG called APPA, which stands for "Average Points per Plate Appearance." Basically, what PAG does for games, APPA does for plate appearances.

Make no mistake, PAG trends tell me it's working. After years of research however, I loosely concluded that although PAG is a good measuring tool, I wanted something more. Something to put PAG to the test. Something stretched to even more diversity.

As I pointed out last week, each defensive position carries its own offense calling card, but PAG scores, collectively, regardless of position, over the last several seasons, appeared to be stretched as far as they could go. Extreme PAG scores appeared to be reserved only for small sample sizes of limited at-bats in a season. Therefore, PAG juxtaposition with fundamental stats, albeit effective,  needed something to help prove its worth. So, to the drawing board I went again.I tested the theory of micromanaging PAG.

It occurred to me that by breaking PAG down, I might find the wider statistical variance I was originally anticipating. So, I started by looking at the amount of plate appearances, not at-bats, per game for players who posted a seasonal 3.50 PAG score or above. With PAG, a total score (TS) is created which is divided by games played. With APPA, TS is divided by plate appearances. I first tested APPA during the 2014 off-season.

I was running stats for the Texas Rangers and ironically, at the same time, a former fantasy league mate sent me a text message asking for my thoughts on Rangers star 3B prospect Joey Gallo, and how he matched up to former Cubs top prospect Kris Bryant. Bryant is lauded for his power, but the 6'5" - 235 pound Gallo's mammoth home runs are near immortal and entice chuckles of amazement amongst both baseball purists and stat-heads alike.

His light-tower power is reaching near legendary proportions. One absurd long-ball in particular is humorously dissected here by CBSSports.com's David Brown.

My casual breakdown turned into instant pressure, as a friend wanted a fantasy baseball question answered. I ran Gallo's and Bryant's APPA numbers on the fly. Much to his delight, I chose Bryant. Not because my friend is a die-hard Cubs fan, but because Bryant outscored Gallo in both PAG and the newly tested APPA.

Bryant posted a 138 game PAG score of 4.74 with an APPA of 1.10, while Gallo's 4.50 PAG in 126 games equated to a 1.06 APPA. This was the proof I needed.

I wouldn't call it being legitimized. But yet, I can no longer take away from the fact that writing partner Brown and I have created new metrics (that sit side-by-side with fundamental stats) that help us make conscience choices for fans and readers of UTRMinors.

Have Brown and I gotten lucky with some of our past prospect predictions? Of course. But we are improving each year as we work on our intellectual inventions, and that's the direction we've been working toward from the very beginning.