Monday, March 28, 2016
Three Months on the Field equals Twelve Months of Preparation.
When fans head to the ballpark to watch a minor league baseball game, they see the players, coaches, they eat incredible food and drink a tasty beverage. But, have you ever wondered what goes on behind the scenes? I recently sat down with Batavia Muckdogs' assistant general manager Josh Swan to discuss commitment it takes to field a sucessful team and make fans happy.
MARC:
Can you hear that? It's the sound of silence, which is usually what you hear standing outside of Batavia, New York's Dwyer Stadium during the month of March. Since 1973, the Class-A Batavia Muckdogs have called Dwyer Stadium home, but just because the Muckdogs play from mid-June until early-September doesn't mean the organization is idle for the rest of the calendar year. Muckdogs Director of Ticket Operations and Assistant General Manager Josh Swan says getting this Short Season minor league baseball team on the field takes a full 12 months of hard work.
SWAN:
For most of our day-to day operations, it consists of me, my boss, who is the General Manager of the team; we take a look at our big board over here. This is what helps set us up.
MARC:
The big board Swan is referring to is a 4 x 8 foot white board sectioned off in categories: picnics, promotions, giveaways and special appearances. The goal? To have every slot on what the front office calls "the mother board" filled.
SWAN:
We are owned by the Genesee County Baseball Club, so it's mainly funded through boosters, through them, but it's our job to help bring in more revenue to keep the team in Batavia, to make sure we get these guys on the field.
SWAN
So, our day-to-day operations consist of reaching out to many local businesses through Batavia, Rochester, Buffalo area, and we have, we sell program ads, we sell radio commercial advertisements, we sell signage throughout the concourse, all the signs throughout the stadium, all the signs on the outfield wall. Everything that we do with that helps bring in all sort of revenue for us, that makes it able to [help] fund a team to be able to stay on the field. And then other, other aspects besides just advertising and marketing that we try to do is we offer group picnic outings that we do, and that's one of my main details as Director of Ticket Operations is I reach out to local businesses that have large number of employees and try to offer them an incentive to be able to come out to a picnic outing that sponsors their group and it's their own night at the ballpark.
MARC:
Swan says with the help of the Rochester Redwings and their management of the Muckdog's concession dollars, revenue is then filtered back into the organization.
SWAN:
It does filter through the organization itself 'cause our concessions are actually owned by the Rochester Redwings and they take care of most of our concessions management money, so all of our revenue we develop through marketing and advertising kind of develops [some] stuff that goes around the stadium. Helps pay for the signs to be put up, helps pay for the new jerseys for the guys to wear every year, all the equipment, all the merchandise for the fans, [that] helps bring them to the games, makes the atmosphere more electric.
MARC:
In addition to the support the Muckdogs receive from the Redwings and local business's, Swan says the Batavia community also plays a tremendous part.
SWAN:
The city of Batavia does most of the work to be able to keep these guys here. Because we actually have a lot of homeowners that rent out their homes to the players and allow them to stay with them. It's great to see a small community like that be able to come in, support their baseball team not by just coming to the games, but be able to help feed the players, drive these guys everywhere they need to go. Most of these guys don't even have vehicles yet. I mean, on their rookie level contracts, they can't even afford them.
MARC:
Swan says the whole community has to come together to help fund and keep the team on the field. Part of that is fans showing up every night. Another is the involvement of the Major League front office.
SWAN:
I wouldn't say so much throughout our daily operations. It's more of like a weekly operations. We try to get in contact to the Marlins about our players. Our roster isn't set in stone until April when these guys actually come here. So, once we kind of get a hold of those guys and we find out who the players are, then we get in contact the coaches and get ready for the upcoming season.
MARC:
The sights and sounds of the New York-Penn League begin Friday June 17th where the Muckdogs open the season on the road versus the Auburn Doubledays. The Muckdogs home opener is Wednesday June 22nd versus the State College Spikes.
Thursday, March 24, 2016
PAG/APPA: An Invention of Sorts - Part I
Ever since I was a child, I've been fascinated by life's simplest inventions. Those ubiquitous things we seem to take for granted every day.
Don't get me wrong. I'm extremely thankful to Steve Jobs for the iPhone, Karl Benz for the automobile and Ben Franklin for inventing the stove. But where would we be without all those little things like the paper clip, the door hinge, the couch cushion or the split key ring.
After all, how many times have we looked at a paper clip and said, "Why didn't I think of that?"
For me, though, I don't see just a door hinge. I immediately find myself envisioning the thought process behind creating the invention itself. The fact that over 3500 years ago a Hatti native sat pondering how a door hinge would make entering and exiting his hut easier - that progressive mind even in the most primitive of times - fascinates me.
Well, I'm proud to welcome you to my invention (of sorts) that's designed to help make your fantasy baseball life easier: PAG/APPA.
Sure, saying 'PAG/APPA' may not roll off the tongue as easy as 'key ring,' but wanting to create a process that makes sifting through professional baseball hitters easier for fantasy players was.
Much like last week's post about writing partner Jim Brown's TPS scoring system, PAG has also gone through it's own set of phases beginning in 2009.
Each day of the minor league regular season, Brown and I scan through every box score, then chart the top performers at our parent site UTRMinors.com. From day one, this has never changed. What's different in my new method of tracking, however, is the filtering process, which is now APPA.
PAG stands for Points Average per Game. As TPS's similarity to Bill James' Game Score, PAG parallels 'total bases', and is designed to follow fantasy-based H2H scoring.
PAG began when I looked over my fantasy team in frustration and asked myself,
"What does every hitter on my team need to score each day in order for me to keep pace with and surpass the best teams in the league?"
That's when I got to work, focusing on the minor league levels because that's where I believe you win dynasty leagues.
The idea was to create a parallel plain in which top prospects and “notspects” (as Brown and I call them) could be measured. Regardless of whether you’re Twins OF phenom Byron Buxton or the last hitter chosen in the Major League draft, PAG grades players on daily performance.
No more, no less. Draft status? Doesn't matter. Pedigree? Doesn't matter. Statistical production matters.
The PAG scoring system isn't as regimented as TPS. With PAG, I focus on players who score a seasonal average of 3.00 or above. In my daily tracking, hitters who score 8.00 or above will generally make my UTR Hitters of the Day list. Any hitter in the 3.50-4.00 seasonal range garners increased attention. Hitters with a seasonal PAG average of 4.00 or above are considered absolute 'must-watch' prospects.
Where PAG becomes unique is when it's applied to defensive positions, as each carries its own offensive calling card.
For example, a catcher is scouted based on a descending "tool" order of: fielding, hitting, arm strength, power and speed. So, if a catcher displays power and speed, his PAG score will be higher than a catcher who matches the prototypical catcher profile.
However, if this catcher moves to a position where power and speed are expected, suddenly his PAG number becomes pedestrian.
Despite surveying the PAG landscape over the past several years, and relying on it primarily, I wanted more. I forced myself to look deeper; to challenge myself to make something that was very useful even better.
In Part II next week, I'll breakdown the extension of PAG, which I developed last off season called APPA.
Don't get me wrong. I'm extremely thankful to Steve Jobs for the iPhone, Karl Benz for the automobile and Ben Franklin for inventing the stove. But where would we be without all those little things like the paper clip, the door hinge, the couch cushion or the split key ring.
After all, how many times have we looked at a paper clip and said, "Why didn't I think of that?"
When we look at these things, of course we see the physical object.
For me, though, I don't see just a door hinge. I immediately find myself envisioning the thought process behind creating the invention itself. The fact that over 3500 years ago a Hatti native sat pondering how a door hinge would make entering and exiting his hut easier - that progressive mind even in the most primitive of times - fascinates me.
Well, I'm proud to welcome you to my invention (of sorts) that's designed to help make your fantasy baseball life easier: PAG/APPA.
Sure, saying 'PAG/APPA' may not roll off the tongue as easy as 'key ring,' but wanting to create a process that makes sifting through professional baseball hitters easier for fantasy players was.
Much like last week's post about writing partner Jim Brown's TPS scoring system, PAG has also gone through it's own set of phases beginning in 2009.
Each day of the minor league regular season, Brown and I scan through every box score, then chart the top performers at our parent site UTRMinors.com. From day one, this has never changed. What's different in my new method of tracking, however, is the filtering process, which is now APPA.
PAG stands for Points Average per Game. As TPS's similarity to Bill James' Game Score, PAG parallels 'total bases', and is designed to follow fantasy-based H2H scoring.
PAG began when I looked over my fantasy team in frustration and asked myself,
"What does every hitter on my team need to score each day in order for me to keep pace with and surpass the best teams in the league?"
That's when I got to work, focusing on the minor league levels because that's where I believe you win dynasty leagues.
The idea was to create a parallel plain in which top prospects and “notspects” (as Brown and I call them) could be measured. Regardless of whether you’re Twins OF phenom Byron Buxton or the last hitter chosen in the Major League draft, PAG grades players on daily performance.
No more, no less. Draft status? Doesn't matter. Pedigree? Doesn't matter. Statistical production matters.
The PAG scoring system isn't as regimented as TPS. With PAG, I focus on players who score a seasonal average of 3.00 or above. In my daily tracking, hitters who score 8.00 or above will generally make my UTR Hitters of the Day list. Any hitter in the 3.50-4.00 seasonal range garners increased attention. Hitters with a seasonal PAG average of 4.00 or above are considered absolute 'must-watch' prospects.
Where PAG becomes unique is when it's applied to defensive positions, as each carries its own offensive calling card.
For example, a catcher is scouted based on a descending "tool" order of: fielding, hitting, arm strength, power and speed. So, if a catcher displays power and speed, his PAG score will be higher than a catcher who matches the prototypical catcher profile.
However, if this catcher moves to a position where power and speed are expected, suddenly his PAG number becomes pedestrian.
Despite surveying the PAG landscape over the past several years, and relying on it primarily, I wanted more. I forced myself to look deeper; to challenge myself to make something that was very useful even better.
In Part II next week, I'll breakdown the extension of PAG, which I developed last off season called APPA.
Sunday, March 13, 2016
TPS: Trying to Make it Simple
Last week I introduced longtime friend and UTRMinors writing partner Jim Brown to Prospect Underground readers. I explained how Brown uses his own specific scoring system called 'TPS' to sift out under-the-radar pitchers toiling in the minor leagues lower levels.
This week, I planned to describe both TPS and my system called PAG/APPA, but you know what, I believe they each deserve equal attention. So, this week I'm giving Brown the floor. After all, when I'm finished explaining how it works, you'll see why.
TPS stands for "Total Performance Score", which is similar to "Game Score", a stat created by famous baseball historian/statistician Bill James. Like Game Score, TPS encompasses numerous stats and peripherals, which are squeezed through eight different equations, which creates Brown's TPS number.
Brown said he first dabbled into deeper stats after the 2009 baseball season. Working for Jason Martinez over at MLBDepthCharts (now RosterResource.com), Brown placed immense pressure on himself because he felt common stats like ERA, WHIP, wins (to name a few) just weren't enough when trying to stay ahead of your fantasy competition, and giving potential readers something more intricate to chew on.
"The 1st generation numbers were very simplistic and did the job," said Brown, "but I wasn’t hitting the mark in projecting my breakouts for the following season."
Brown confessed that the original number was too isolated. This is what began Brown's quest toward today's version. ('Breakouts' are players Jim and I choose during the off-season at UTRMinors as those we feel could have a breakout performance the following year.)
So, Brown's new TPS platform was a springboard toward creating a more intricate formula.
"It wasn't a replacement," said Brown, "but a reinforcement of my current system."
Brown also did this mostly because he grew frustrated from gathering chunks of info from several different websites. Sites like MinorLeagueCentral.com, FanGraphs and BaseballReference to name a few, each contained a select, but extremely crucial peripherals Brown used to compute TPS.
The TPS grading system originally covered all pitchers under the same scoring umbrella, but Brown said the numbers seemed a bit skewed because it lumped both starters and relievers together.
"The differential in the numbers are because relief pitchers generally don't rack up the innings pitched that starters do," said Brown, "and thus causes relievers to post somewhat lower TPS scores than starters."
Brown's scoring system is as follows:
Starting Pitcher TPS Grading:
.000 to .075 - Tier A
.076 to .125 - Tier B
.126 to .175 - Tier C
.176 & higher - Tier D
Relief Pitcher TPS Grading:
.000 to .050 - Tier A
.051 to .075 - Tier B
.076 to .100 - Tier C
.101 & higher - Tier D
Once Brown reached this level of stat tracking, he was shocked at the results. The new version enabled his ability to predict future breakouts much much easier. However, he says staying humble in the continual TPS tweaking process is key.
"I know this is as true as Punxsutawney Phil predicting the coming of spring," said Brown, "but I'll continue working on the equation until I can build some consistency on the pitchers I select and their overall seasonal performances."
Brown says he wants to create a dynamic stat, not push every sabermetrician aside, as some sabermetrician's can become quite defensive in the face of ignorance.
"TPS has the potential to become another in the long line of deep analytics," said Brown. "The best part is it's my own, I can work with it exclusively and I've seen results."
The possibilities are endless, as Brown has applied TPS only to lower level minor league kids.
"I haven't even scratched the surface of what TPS could do in predicting the trends and success of current major leaguer's" Brown said, "and that's a fun and very exciting thought."
This week, I planned to describe both TPS and my system called PAG/APPA, but you know what, I believe they each deserve equal attention. So, this week I'm giving Brown the floor. After all, when I'm finished explaining how it works, you'll see why.
TPS stands for "Total Performance Score", which is similar to "Game Score", a stat created by famous baseball historian/statistician Bill James. Like Game Score, TPS encompasses numerous stats and peripherals, which are squeezed through eight different equations, which creates Brown's TPS number.
Brown said he first dabbled into deeper stats after the 2009 baseball season. Working for Jason Martinez over at MLBDepthCharts (now RosterResource.com), Brown placed immense pressure on himself because he felt common stats like ERA, WHIP, wins (to name a few) just weren't enough when trying to stay ahead of your fantasy competition, and giving potential readers something more intricate to chew on.
"The 1st generation numbers were very simplistic and did the job," said Brown, "but I wasn’t hitting the mark in projecting my breakouts for the following season."
Brown confessed that the original number was too isolated. This is what began Brown's quest toward today's version. ('Breakouts' are players Jim and I choose during the off-season at UTRMinors as those we feel could have a breakout performance the following year.)
So, Brown's new TPS platform was a springboard toward creating a more intricate formula.
"It wasn't a replacement," said Brown, "but a reinforcement of my current system."
Brown also did this mostly because he grew frustrated from gathering chunks of info from several different websites. Sites like MinorLeagueCentral.com, FanGraphs and BaseballReference to name a few, each contained a select, but extremely crucial peripherals Brown used to compute TPS.
The TPS grading system originally covered all pitchers under the same scoring umbrella, but Brown said the numbers seemed a bit skewed because it lumped both starters and relievers together.
"The differential in the numbers are because relief pitchers generally don't rack up the innings pitched that starters do," said Brown, "and thus causes relievers to post somewhat lower TPS scores than starters."
Brown's scoring system is as follows:
Starting Pitcher TPS Grading:
.000 to .075 - Tier A
.076 to .125 - Tier B
.126 to .175 - Tier C
.176 & higher - Tier D
Relief Pitcher TPS Grading:
.000 to .050 - Tier A
.051 to .075 - Tier B
.076 to .100 - Tier C
.101 & higher - Tier D
Once Brown reached this level of stat tracking, he was shocked at the results. The new version enabled his ability to predict future breakouts much much easier. However, he says staying humble in the continual TPS tweaking process is key.
"I know this is as true as Punxsutawney Phil predicting the coming of spring," said Brown, "but I'll continue working on the equation until I can build some consistency on the pitchers I select and their overall seasonal performances."
Brown says he wants to create a dynamic stat, not push every sabermetrician aside, as some sabermetrician's can become quite defensive in the face of ignorance.
"TPS has the potential to become another in the long line of deep analytics," said Brown. "The best part is it's my own, I can work with it exclusively and I've seen results."
The possibilities are endless, as Brown has applied TPS only to lower level minor league kids.
"I haven't even scratched the surface of what TPS could do in predicting the trends and success of current major leaguer's" Brown said, "and that's a fun and very exciting thought."
Saturday, March 5, 2016
UTR: A Rewarding Transition
After kicking off Prospect Underground, I described it as place I would highlight the top minor league baseball hitters no one is talking about while helping fantasy players boost their prospect floor.
Well, anyone who remotely understands baseball knows there are two sides to the game: hitting and pitching.
While I research and promote low-level hitters at UTRMinors.com, the pitching portion belongs to my partner and long-time friend Jim Brown.
Brown's introduction into the world of under-the-radar prospects began as a result of my search for new ownership in a lifetime National League-only dynasty league. A league I've been a part of for 20 years.
The sudden loss of two owners after the 2006 season left our 12-team league down to ten. During the time in the off-season where draft preparation should be well underway, I frantically called Brown after having lost touch with him for an extended period of time. I was hoping he'd be ready and willing to step right in as a team owner.
To make a long story short, he accepted, drafted his team and I took him under my wing, teaching him everything I know: Roster building, not winning leagues at the draft, smart waiver pickups and most importantly, knowing your minor leaguers. Brown confessed the invitation to join the league couldn't have come at a better time.
"I had just retired as Fire Chief from the [Alpha] fire department. I was working all day at the university (Penn State)."Being chief, I'd come home from work, eat dinner, then head right over to the fire house to work. I'd prepare training manuals and schedule re-certifications for all the guys. We'd do training exercises. All this on top of the fire calls. It was like working two full-time jobs, and I was burned out, no pun intended."
When Brown retired, his wife Melissa was worried he would go through some form of withdraw. Brown went from having an enormous amount responsibility to having nothing to do aside from his day job working for Penn State University. Melissa describes him as a 'busy body' so the timing of joining the fantasy league was what she called "a blessing."
Going on his tenth season, Brown has not only been successful in our fantasy league, his UTR research has garnered successful results using his own brand of scoring system called "TPS."
Trust me, it's not the same report Bill Lumbergh addressed during the 1999 cult movie classic 'Office Space." Brown's goal using TPS is much the same as mine: sift out the top minor league players no one is talking about yet. We follow the same pattern posting in-season daily content and off-season OAS lists.
In next weeks blog installment, I'll dive deep into the inner workings of Brown's TPS method as well as my own scoring system called PAG/APAB.
Well, anyone who remotely understands baseball knows there are two sides to the game: hitting and pitching.
While I research and promote low-level hitters at UTRMinors.com, the pitching portion belongs to my partner and long-time friend Jim Brown.
Brown's introduction into the world of under-the-radar prospects began as a result of my search for new ownership in a lifetime National League-only dynasty league. A league I've been a part of for 20 years.
The sudden loss of two owners after the 2006 season left our 12-team league down to ten. During the time in the off-season where draft preparation should be well underway, I frantically called Brown after having lost touch with him for an extended period of time. I was hoping he'd be ready and willing to step right in as a team owner.
To make a long story short, he accepted, drafted his team and I took him under my wing, teaching him everything I know: Roster building, not winning leagues at the draft, smart waiver pickups and most importantly, knowing your minor leaguers. Brown confessed the invitation to join the league couldn't have come at a better time.
"I had just retired as Fire Chief from the [Alpha] fire department. I was working all day at the university (Penn State)."Being chief, I'd come home from work, eat dinner, then head right over to the fire house to work. I'd prepare training manuals and schedule re-certifications for all the guys. We'd do training exercises. All this on top of the fire calls. It was like working two full-time jobs, and I was burned out, no pun intended."
When Brown retired, his wife Melissa was worried he would go through some form of withdraw. Brown went from having an enormous amount responsibility to having nothing to do aside from his day job working for Penn State University. Melissa describes him as a 'busy body' so the timing of joining the fantasy league was what she called "a blessing."
Going on his tenth season, Brown has not only been successful in our fantasy league, his UTR research has garnered successful results using his own brand of scoring system called "TPS."
Trust me, it's not the same report Bill Lumbergh addressed during the 1999 cult movie classic 'Office Space." Brown's goal using TPS is much the same as mine: sift out the top minor league players no one is talking about yet. We follow the same pattern posting in-season daily content and off-season OAS lists.
In next weeks blog installment, I'll dive deep into the inner workings of Brown's TPS method as well as my own scoring system called PAG/APAB.
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