Thursday, March 24, 2016

PAG/APPA: An Invention of Sorts - Part I

Ever since I was a child, I've been fascinated by life's simplest inventions. Those ubiquitous things we seem to take for granted every day. 
     
Don't get me wrong. I'm extremely thankful to Steve Jobs for the iPhone, Karl Benz for the automobile and Ben Franklin for inventing the stove. But where would we be without all those little things like the paper clip, the door hinge, the couch cushion or the split key ring. 

After all, how many times have we looked at a paper clip and said, "Why didn't I think of that?"
When we look at these things, of course we see the physical object. 

For me, though, I don't see just a door hinge. I immediately find myself envisioning the thought process behind creating the invention itself. The fact that over 3500 years ago a Hatti native sat pondering how a door hinge would make entering and exiting his hut easier - that progressive mind even in the most primitive of times - fascinates me.

Well, I'm proud to welcome you to my invention (of sorts) that's designed to help make your fantasy baseball life easier: PAG/APPA. 

Sure, saying 'PAG/APPA' may not roll off the tongue as easy as 'key ring,' but wanting to create a process that makes sifting through professional baseball hitters easier for fantasy players was.

Much like last week's post about writing partner Jim Brown's TPS scoring system, PAG has also gone through it's own set of phases beginning in 2009.  
     
Each day of the minor league regular season, Brown and I scan through every box score, then chart the top performers at our parent site UTRMinors.com. From day one, this has never changed. What's different in my new method of tracking, however, is the filtering process, which is now APPA. 

PAG stands for Points Average per Game. As TPS's similarity to Bill James' Game Score, PAG parallels 'total bases', and is designed to follow fantasy-based H2H scoring. 

PAG began when I looked over my fantasy team in frustration and asked myself, 

"What does every hitter on my team need to score each day in order for me to keep pace with and surpass the best teams in the league?" 

That's when I got to work, focusing on the minor league levels because that's where I believe you win dynasty leagues. 

The idea was to create a parallel plain in which top prospects and “notspects” (as Brown and I call them) could be measured. Regardless of whether you’re Twins OF phenom Byron Buxton or the last hitter chosen in the Major League draft, PAG grades players on daily performance. 

No more, no less. Draft status? Doesn't matter. Pedigree? Doesn't matter. Statistical production matters.

The PAG scoring system isn't as regimented as TPS. With PAG, I focus on players who score a seasonal average of 3.00 or above. In my daily tracking, hitters who score 8.00 or above will generally make my UTR Hitters of the Day list. Any hitter in the 3.50-4.00 seasonal range garners increased attention. Hitters with a seasonal PAG average of 4.00 or above are considered absolute 'must-watch' prospects. 

Where PAG becomes unique is when it's applied to defensive positions, as each carries its own offensive calling card. 

For example, a catcher is scouted based on a descending "tool" order of: fielding, hitting, arm strength, power and speed. So, if a catcher displays power and speed, his PAG score will be higher than a catcher who matches the prototypical catcher profile. 

However, if this catcher moves to a position where power and speed are expected, suddenly his PAG number becomes pedestrian. 

Despite surveying the PAG landscape over the past several years, and relying on it primarily, I wanted more. I forced myself to look deeper; to challenge myself to make something that was very useful even better. 

In Part II next week, I'll breakdown the extension of PAG, which I developed last off season called APPA. 





No comments:

Post a Comment