TPS: Trying to Make it Simple

Last week I introduced longtime friend and UTRMinors writing partner Jim Brown to Prospect Underground readers. I explained how Brown uses his own specific scoring system called 'TPS' to sift out under-the-radar pitchers toiling in the minor leagues lower levels.
 
This week, I planned to describe both TPS and my system called PAG/APPA, but you know what, I believe they each deserve equal attention. So, this week I'm giving Brown the floor. After all, when I'm finished explaining how it works, you'll see why.
   
TPS stands for "Total Performance Score", which is similar to "Game Score", a stat created by famous baseball historian/statistician Bill James. Like Game Score, TPS encompasses numerous stats and peripherals, which are squeezed through eight different equations, which creates Brown's TPS number.

Brown said he first dabbled into deeper stats after the 2009 baseball season. Working for Jason Martinez over at MLBDepthCharts (now RosterResource.com), Brown placed immense pressure on himself because he felt common stats like ERA, WHIP, wins (to name a few) just weren't enough when trying to stay ahead of your fantasy competition, and giving potential readers something more intricate to chew on.
   
"The 1st generation numbers were very simplistic and did the job," said Brown, "but I wasn’t hitting the mark in projecting my breakouts for the following season." 

Brown confessed that the original number was too isolated. This is what began Brown's quest toward today's version. ('Breakouts' are players Jim and I choose during the off-season at UTRMinors as those we feel could have a breakout performance the following year.)
 
So, Brown's new TPS platform was a springboard toward creating a more intricate formula.

"It wasn't a replacement," said Brown, "but a reinforcement of my current system."
 
Brown also did this mostly because he grew frustrated from gathering chunks of info from several different websites. Sites like MinorLeagueCentral.com, FanGraphs and BaseballReference to name a few, each contained a select, but extremely crucial peripherals Brown used to compute TPS.
 
The TPS grading system originally covered all pitchers under the same scoring umbrella, but Brown said the numbers seemed a bit skewed because it lumped both starters and relievers together.
 
"The differential in the numbers are because relief pitchers generally don't rack up the innings pitched that starters do," said Brown, "and thus causes relievers to post somewhat lower TPS scores than starters." 
 
Brown's scoring system is as follows: 

Starting Pitcher TPS Grading:

.000 to .075 - Tier A
.076 to .125 - Tier B
.126 to .175 - Tier C
.176 & higher - Tier D

Relief Pitcher TPS Grading:

.000 to .050 - Tier A
.051 to .075 - Tier B
.076 to .100 - Tier C
.101 & higher - Tier D

Once Brown reached this level of stat tracking, he was shocked at the results. The new version enabled his ability to predict future breakouts much much easier. However, he says staying humble in the continual TPS tweaking process is key.
   
"I know this is as true as Punxsutawney Phil predicting the coming of spring," said Brown, "but I'll continue working on the equation until I can build some consistency on the pitchers I select and their overall seasonal performances."
   
Brown says he wants to create a dynamic stat, not push every sabermetrician aside, as some sabermetrician's can become quite defensive in the face of ignorance.
   
"TPS has the potential to become another in the long line of deep analytics," said Brown. "The best part is it's my own, I can work with it exclusively and I've seen results."

The possibilities are endless, as Brown has applied TPS only to lower level minor league kids.
   
"I haven't even scratched the surface of what TPS could do in predicting the trends and success of current major leaguer's" Brown said, "and that's a fun and very exciting thought."